"Counting the Chickens Before They Hatch"
There once was significant anxiety around a growing world population, but now many are turning their attention to some of the short- and long-term impacts of a shrinking one, or at least one that is not growing quite as rapidly. To understand more about the change in the world population, the replacement level fertility concept is introduced to help estimate a stable population, without it increasing or decreasing. However, replacement fertility rate is crude, as it cannot be said that a woman should have a certain number of children in her life.
Many experts believe that the world population is in the fourth stage of the demographic transition model, where both birth and death rates are low and stable. It is now a question of whether the population will remain constant, meaning the fertility rate is the same as the replacement rate, or we will enter the fifth stage where the death rate exceeds the birth rate. The replacement rate is “the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, requiring an average of 2.1 children per woman" (Craig 1994).
Why is the number 2.1 and not 2.0? The idea is that a woman needs to replace herself, which requires her to produce another girl to grow to be of reproductive age to continue the cycle. However, some are not concerned about decreasing birth rates and hesitate to acknowledge the future impact of extremely small birth rates. ''Counting Our Chickens Before They Hatch'' seeks to confront complicated issues of birth rates and to create simple and accessible information that helps the general public explore fertility rates and demographic changes through data visualization and visual narrative.
The work will start with an analysis of the current world population and bring attention to the four stages of the demographic transition model: pre-industrial, industrializing, mature industrial, and post-industrial. Then, it will zoom into the undeclared fifth stage of the model with the application of the replacement rate. The design process will continue with an analysis of how individual choice plays, or would play, into collective decision-making and conclude with a discussion on the impact of high and low birth rates in some countries.
Sources
Craig, J. (1994). Replacement level fertility and future population growth. Popul Trends.
Emma (Khai Hoan) Nguyen
Emma (Khai Hoan) Nguyen, originally from Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and currently based in Boston, is a dedicated Masters of Fine Arts student at Northeastern University, specializing in information design and data visualization. With a passion for design, Nguyen has explored various mediums, ultimately finding her niche in data visualization and information design. Her work revolves around the power of storytelling, showcasing her ability to extract meaningful insights from complex data.
