Gerry Learmonth is working with the UVA Hospital to forecast when the surge in COVID-19 cases will take place in the Charlottesville area. He is tracking the number of reported cases and hospital admissions, which affect the curves in his model. The dynamic model Learmonth has created is based on a model type used in epidemiology known as the SEIR model, Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered. This model also divides individuals into four age categories to account for the differences among age categories in regards to COVID-19. In addition to this model forecasting when a surge would take place, it also measures the impact of a surge.
As stated by Learmonth in the Introduction of his UVA Health Surge Model with COVID-19: “S-E-I-R models consist of a set of continuous differential equations that link the flows of persons among the different compartments. Other than being categorized by age, all persons in the model are considered homogeneous. The model extends over a 60-day time period in units of one day with a dt of 0.25. This allows the underlying differential equations to be integrated toward a “solution” resulting in smooth curves.”
Current models can be viewed in the attached pdf.